The Abridged version:
- Declining enrollment in Davis public schools has led the district to consider future closures and restructuring.
- With fewer school-aged kids in the city, officials will need to make difficult decisions in the next few years.
- In two potential scenarios, the district outlines plans that could close Patwin and Birch Lane elementary schools, among others.
As enrollment in Davis schools steadily drops, district officials are planning for the “worst-case scenario.”
With declining birth rates, increasingly expensive housing and fewer students, the city will likely be forced to make difficult decisions about its well-regarded public schools. That could mean closures and district-wide restructuring that would impact dozens of families, officials said.
“This is not a problem that can be solved with new programs or recruitment strategies. This is structural and this is our challenge,” said Maria Clayton, chief strategy officer for the Davis Joint Unified School District, in a presentation to parents posted on its website.
As a result, the district has drawn up two of what they are referring to as “worst-case scenario concepts” that may become necessary by the 2028-2029 school year. In both, at least Patwin Elementary School in west Davis would close, along with possibly Birch Lane Elementary School and re-shuffling at others.
“We’re embarking on a community conversation that none of us want to have,” said Superintendent Matt Best in the presentation. The district planned three community discussions in November, including one on Thursday.
Years of declining enrollment
Declining enrollment isn’t new in Davis. The number of school-aged children in the city has been declining steadily for the last decade or so, Clayton said.
That can be attributed to a variety of factors, including an aging population, fewer families and skyrocketing housing costs.
“Home prices in Davis remain extremely high,” Clayton said.
That’s pushed families out of the city for years, culminating in 88 fewer kindergarten students enrolled in Davis schools than officials expected last year.
To solve the problem, Davis needs to build more housing, Clayton said.
“We’ve seen that when new housing is built, students follow,” she said, referring to the 200-student bump that occurred after the Cannery housing development opened in 2015, along with new housing developments in West Sacramento and Woodland that have attracted families.
The city has two major housing developments in the pipeline, Village Farms Davis and Willowgrove, which could add up to 1,000 students in the next 15 years.
But Barbara Archer, spokesperson for the city of Davis, said those projects still have some hurdles ahead of them.
“There still is a lot more process to happen,” she said in an interview on Thursday, adding the projects will be brought in front of Davis voters and the City Council for approval.
If both projects pass, the district may not need to close a school. But those votes won’t happen until at least next year, and the outcome isn’t certain.
Parents are worried
In the meantime, the possibility of Patwin closing has worried parents about the loss of a beloved school.
Raul Cruz, a parent who sent four kids to Patwin, said the school became so familiar that it felt like a family at times.
“We are so happy when we go there,” he said. “Everybody’s happy because we’ve known each other for such a long time.”
Cruz said they sent one of their kids to a different school for a couple of years, but he was unhappy until he came back to Patwin. Now he imagines the challenges that would face parents who may have to send their kids to schools that are a little bit further away.
“It’s pretty convenient to have the elementary school in the community because all the kids can walk themselves and it’s pretty safe,” he said.
Andrew Kwee, another Patwin parent, shared that concern. Kwee lives down the street from the school and walks his three kids there every morning.
“It’s a moment to bond with my children,” he said.
Besides the convenience, Kwee has also appreciated the care that Patwin teachers take with his kids. One teacher knows his son has special needs and sits him in the front of the classroom and gives him breaks to shake out his hands.
“I don’t know how that would work in a different school where I’d have to get to know the teachers,” he said.
Kwee said that if Patwin did close, he would have to seriously consider enrolling his kids in private school.
“If parents are stuck doing multiple drop-offs for multiple kids, they could actually potentially be losing kids in the district, compounding their issue with enrollment declines,” he said.
For now, though, the district will have to deal with the enrollment challenge that already exists. That is likely to mean more painful conversations with Davis parents worried about their schools.
Daniel Hennessy joins Abridged from the California Local News Fellowship. He’s a reporter covering Yolo County.