Voters shift away from GOP in Sacramento region’s conservative areas over past decade

The Abridged version:

• In Folsom, the significant Republican registration advantage over Democrats has disappeared entirely over the past decade.
• In Roseville a decade ago, Republicans held a 13-percentage point registration advantage over Democrats, which is down to three points today.
• Several small cities in rural and semi-rural areas throughout the region have become more supportive of Republicans — or at least held steady.

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The Sacramento region’s largest and fastest-growing suburbs in traditionally conservative areas have experienced a broad shift away from Republicans and toward Democrats since Donald Trump was first elected president in 2016.

A decade ago, Republicans enjoyed a significant party registration advantage over Democrats in Folsom, Roseville, Rocklin and Lincoln. Those advantages have either shrunk significantly or, in the case of Folsom, disappeared entirely, according to the latest state data.

The shifts have given Democratic party leaders in booming areas near the Placer County-Sacramento County line confidence that they can win more local elections and deliver more votes to candidates for national office.

“I think we’re seeing suburban voters who are comfortable increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party, and the Republicans struggling with that group,” said Wesley Hussey, a political science professor at Sacramento State.

A big change in Folsom

Folsom is growing fast. It added nearly 19,000 residents in the last decade and, with intense home construction south of Highway 50, it will likely soon become the fourth city in the region with more than 100,000 residents.

The political makeup of the city has changed just as quickly.

Ten years ago, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by an 11-point margin in Folsom, with 42% of voters registered as Republicans and 31% registered as Democrats. 

Today, roughly 36% of Folsom voters are Democrats and 33% are Republicans, giving Democrats a three-and-a-half point advantage.

Julian Sarafian, president of Folsom Area Democrats, said the shift toward Democrats is largely a result of changing demographics. New development has attracted new residents, many of them from liberal parts of the Bay Area.

At the same time, Sarafian said he suspects that high cost of living has led some longtime Folsom residents to move to cheaper places, including a disproportionate number of conservative voters.

“It used to be so strongly Republican, from a local level, from a cultural level … that, if you were a Democrat, it was the responsible thing to do to keep your head down, vote quietly and respectfully, and go about your day,” he said. 

Now, he said, “you have consistent sidewalk rallies. You have get-out-the vote efforts. You have our teams canvassing every weekend. You have a slate of identifiable Democratic candidates who are not running away from their title.”

Trump’s policies have angered many Folsom residents, leading to increased engagement and registration, Sarafian said. The Folsom Democratic Club has grown from around 60 members in 2024 to over 400 today.

In 2024, Kamala Harris beat Trump by a margin of 51% to 45% in Folsom. By comparison, the vote was much closer in 2016, with Hillary Clinton earning 46.6% of the Folsom vote compared to 46.1% for Trump.

But Democrats still face challenges. Many leaders at the local and state level are entrenched Republicans.

“We face an uphill battle because incumbents always have the advantage of name recognition, of the pre-built pipelines of donors, and more significantly, we face an uphill battle because the machine of the opposition, the Republican Party and their allies, they’ve been humming along for 30 years strong,” Sarafian said.

Roseville still leans Republican, but changing fast

A similar shift has occurred in Roseville.

A decade ago, Republicans held a 13-percentage point registration advantage over Democrats. Today, that advantage has fallen to just three points.

During that time, the city added about 31,000 residents, a 23% growth rate.

Daniel Medina, second vice president of the Roseville Area Democrats club, said party growth in Roseville is mostly a rejection of the policies of Donald Trump and the associated MAGA movement.

“Getting involved in terrible wars, cutting healthcare, sending ICE into our streets: I think most normal people, neighbors in the suburbs, don’t like these things,” Medina said. “They like consistency. They like good schools, safe streets.”

Medina said Democrats have made inroads on the city council in recent years. He said that much of the local party’s attention has focused on school board races in Roseville and nearby Rocklin, where controversies over transgender students and religion in the classroom have created headlines.

“We have had a lot of issues that we now have organized against and are pushing back on because we just want good normal governance on our school board,” Medina said.

Trump defeated Harris in Roseville by three percentage points in 2024, 50% to 47%. By comparison, Trump defeated Clinton by seven percentage points in 2016, 50% to 43%.

Medina said the tight margins in Roseville — and the preferences of many Democrats in the city — mean that the party often works with Republicans on important local problems.

“Suburban families, young families that are moving here, that have lived here, that are starting families, people are kind of sick and tired of the hyperpartisan rhetoric, the national culture war,” Medina said.

Republicans still make gains in some places

While voter registration in most cities and suburbs in the region shifted toward Democrats during the last decade, several small cities in rural and semi-rural areas moved closer to Republicans — or at least held relatively steady.

For instance, Republicans hold a 12-point registration advantage over Democrats in El Dorado County, down only slightly from the 13-point advantage they enjoyed a decade ago.

In the last decade, El Dorado overtook Placer as the county with the highest percentage of Republican voters in the region.

Many El Dorado County voters have lived in the area for years. There hasn’t been as much population gain through migration as in nearby Placer County. 

“Placer County, I talk to a lot of people there, and they’ll say it’s getting a little too big,” said Heather Masten, treasurer for the El Dorado County Republican Party. “Roseville’s getting a little too big, with the high density housing and things like that, and it does change your community.”

One part of the county that is growing relatively quickly is the unincorporated area of El Dorado Hills. While Democrats may be gaining some ground in the area, it is still broadly conservative. Trump beat Harris by a margin of 53% to 44% in El Dorado County’s First Supervisorial District, which overlaps much of El Dorado Hills.

“People assume Bay Area transplant automatically means Democrat,” Masten said. “It doesn’t always mean Democrat. Sometimes if you’re a conservative, a Republican, you just get tired of the crazy Bay Area politics.”

Across El Dorado County, Trump beat Harris by a 12-point margin in 2024, 55% to 43%. He beat Clinton by a 14-point margin, 53% to 39%.

“I think the next count that comes around, you’re gonna find that we got even more registered voters,” Masten said.

Registration figures don’t tell the whole story

Regionwide, Democrats have widened their lead on Republicans during the Trump era.

A decade ago, Democrats had an eight-point registration advantage over Republicans in the area of Placer, El Dorado, Yolo and Sacramento counties. Today, they have an 11-point advantage, the latest state data shows.

The shift is more about Republican losses than Democratic gains. About 41% of the region’s voters are registered as Democrats, the same proportion as in 2016. But the proportion of voters registered as Republicans fell from 33% to 29%. 

The number of voters declaring no party preference or third-party allegiance grew significantly during the last decade. So did the overall number of registered voters, which coincided with laws making it easier to register to vote at the DMV.

Hussey, the Sacramento State political science professor, said party registration shifts often reflect the preferences of voters who are new to the area and young voters who had not registered before.

“The reality is, we don’t see a lot of people dramatically change their political opinion in their lives who are regularly voting and are regularly plugged in,” Hussey said.

New voters registering at the DMV may not actually show up at the polls, Hussey said. 

In the 2024 election, about 53% of the region’s voters supported Kamala Harris for president, the same level of support shown in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. By comparison, about 42% of the region’s voters supported Trump in 2024, up from 39% in 2016.

“I think what’s happening with registration data is it’s showing how Democratic and and ‘small l’ liberal, younger voters are,” he said. “That’s really the only group that’s changing, other than the back end, which is people passing away.”